In 2011 Kentucky Derby, taking a stand against the favorites

At the start of the year, people involved in Thoroughbred racing were speculating whether Uncle Mo would win the Kentucky Derby and go on to sweep the Triple Crown series. Three weeks ago, they were asking if he would be fit and healthy enough to perform well in the Derby. This week, they were wondering if he would even get to the starting gate.
After his championship season as a 2-year-old, Uncle Mo’s potential seemed limitless, but his 3-year-old campaign has gone awry from the start. He won a trumped-up race at Gulfstream Park that was little more than a glorified workout and then suffered a shocking loss against a terrible field in the Wood Memorial Stakes. A few days later, trainer Todd Pletcher issued a press release saying that Uncle Mo was found to be suffering from a gastrointestinal infection – the excuse for the defeat – but that he was back in training for the Derby.
Some skeptics weren’t fully satisfied with this explanation because owners and trainers rarely tell the whole truth about horses’ physical problems. When owner Mike Repole participated in a conference call last week and criticized the media for questioning Uncle Mo’s soundness, reporter Gary West promptly asked Repole “to be forthcoming [about] whether there have been any physical issues” with Uncle Mo since his 2-year-old campaign. Repole danced around the question for about 10 minutes and wouldn’t answer it.
Questions haven’t stopped since Uncle Mo has been at Churchill Downs. The colt’s workouts have been undefinitive. (“Nothing flashy, but he’s doing well,” Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch reported.) Repole has been saying that his colt won’t run unless he’s 100 percent – something an owner wouldn’t probably bother to say if the horse is actually 100 percent.
Four-time Derby-winning trainer Wayne Lukas often declared, “You can’t make compromises and win the Kentucky Derby.” Uncle Mo’s entire 3-year-old season appears compromised. He has not done anything since Nov. 6, 2010 – the date of his dazzling win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – to indicate that he is a viable contender. Even though he is the most talented horse in the field, by far, I could not bet him under these circumstances.
Whether or not Uncle Mo is in the starting lineup, Florida Derby winner Dialed In will probably be the post-time favorite. Many fans have watched his exciting last-to-first rallies and concluded that Nick Zito’s colt is a natural Derby horse.
Yes, Dialed In was impressive charging from far behind to win the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in January. But in his two subsequent starts at 1 1/8 miles, he lost an allowance race and then struggled to win the Florida Derby. The race – filled with speed horses, run with fast early fractions – was a perfect setup for him, yet Dialed In barely got past the 68-1 pacesetter, Shackleford, to prevail in slow time. Eleven horses in the Kentucky Derby field have earned higher Beyer Speed Figures in 1 1/8-mile races than Dialed In did in either of his starts at the distance. I believe that Dialed In’s best game is rallying at shorter distances and that he will be even less effective at 1 1/4 miles. Throw him out.
None of the Derby entrants (except for Uncle Mo) has yet run a race good enough to stamp himself clearly as a potential Derby winner. Their speed figures are all subpar. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to look for a colt whose form is on the upgrade and is likely to improve further Saturday. Based on this standard, these are my top three:
1. Shackleford
2. Archarcharch
3. Nehro
While Dialed In received acclaim for his come-from-behind Florida Derby victory, Shackleford gave a superior performance in defeat. He outsprinted several formidable speedsters, set a fast pace, and refused to yield when Dialed In hooked him. This race represented an improvement over his four previous starts, and he may still be improving – as indicated by his fast five-furlong workout in 58.83 seconds at Churchill Downs. Is he a 1 1/4-mile horse? Maybe not. But at healthy odds I’ll take the chance that his sharp form will trump any of his shortcomings.
Archarcharch and Nehro finished one-two in the competitive 13-horse Arkansas Derby, with Archarcharch rallying past the tired leaders to take command and Nehro unleashing a powerful late run to miss by a neck. Both have raced four times at a mile or more since mid-January; they’re fit. Both have solid pedigrees for 1 1/4 miles. Both are improving; they delivered the best races of their lives in the Arkansas Derby. Archarcharch is training especially well; after he worked five furlongs in 59.31 seconds last week, clocker Bruno De Julio wrote at GradeOneRacing.com: “He is a serious racehorse hitting his stride.” If a hot early pace in the Derby takes a toll on the leaders – a common scenario at Churchill Downs – Archarcharch and Nehro are the stretch-runners most likely to capitalize.
Because a handicapper has to bet horses on the basis of hoped-for improvement rather than actual accomplishments, this is an especially challenging Kentucky Derby. But the potential for giant payoffs makes the race irresistible. My plan is to box my top three horses in the exacta, and then to use them on top in trifecta and superfecta combinations that will not include either Dialed In or Uncle Mo.